Thursday, March 28, 2024
Miles from the Mainstream
D. R. ZUKERMAN, proprietor

The End of American Influence
in the Middle East?


May 15, 2014 --

LPR has an idea that the parting shot from unnamed members of Secretary of State John Kerry's Mideast negotiating team, blaming Israel, mainly, for the talks' breakdown and speculating that progress might require another Palestinian intifada (uprising against Israel), indicates frustration at the administration's realization that the American role in Israel-Palestinian negotiations has come to an end. The main basis of the frustration -- realization that Washington cannot bend Netanyahu to its will and, likely, cannot bring about his ouster as President Clinton managed to do, in the 1990's.

LPR believes that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of of the Palestinian Authority long after his term expired, remains committed to the vision expressed
by Yasser Arafat, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, November 13, 1974. This vision sees an undivided Palestine where some Jews will be tolerated. The Arafat vision also regards Zionism as a form of racism even worse than the racism of South Africa.

In brief, for Arafat, there was only a single-state solution. LPR believes negotiations that do not lead to a unitary Palestine are of no interest to Abbas, who is willing to recognize Israel as present reality but cannot accept the idea of a Jewish State, because a Jewish State as generally understood pointed to the two-state solution approved by the United Nations General Assembly in Resolution 181, adopted November 29, 1947.

The Arab world rejected the Paletine partition plan then; Arafat rejected partition November 13, 1974 --comparing partition to King Solomon's suggestion that a baby claimed by two mothers should be cut in half. LPR is convinced that the Palestinian Authority does not accept a two- state solution today, that does not serve as eventual transition to a unitary Palestine.

LPR expects that the Obama administration will continue, from time to time, to try and apply pressure that leads to the end of the Netanyahu government.

LPR expects such machinations will fail, unless Israelis choose a government willing to see a Vietnam-like result subsequent to a negotiated settlement, acceptable to Palestinians and Boycott-Divestment-Sanctions leftists. that replaces Israel with the unitary state called Palestine.

LPR believes it is more likely that U.S. unfluence in the Middle East will be succeeded by the Top Bear -- Russia, led by Vladimir Putin. Clearly, Putin and Netanyahu have in common the fact that they are targets of the West's diplomacy by demonizing demagoguery. Israel has not been heard joining the West's anti-Putin chorus.

Indeed, Israel did not vote on the UN General Assembly's resolution opposing Russia's annexation of Crimea. (Another nation that did not vote on the resolution: Iran!) Egypt has indicated that it is turning to Moscow, in view of the apparent coolness of the Obama administration towards a post-Morsi Egypt. Bashir Assad probably could not survive as leader of Syria without Russian support. Syria, Egypt, Israel - all on better, if varying, terms, arguably, with Moscow than with Obama's Washington. That leaves the Palestine Authority (and Hamas).

How will President Obama try and maintain a smidgen of influence in the new Middle East -- by secretly arming Abbas and Hamas?