Friday, March 29, 2024
Miles from the Mainstream
D. R. ZUKERMAN, proprietor

"What's the Matter With Polling?"

July 19, 2015 --

This question was the title of a New York Times article, June 20, on political polls, by Rutgers Professor Cliff Zukin, who noted that political polls did not predict Republican congressional gains in 2014, or the conservative victories this year of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and Prime Minister David Cameron in Great Britain.

Prof. Zukin attributed the miscalls to several technical issues: growth of cellphones, lower rate of response -- and "overestimation of turnout."

Apparently, inherent political bias in the surveys -- with the aim not of predicting a result but of getting a desired result -- either has not occurred to the Rutgers professor, or is, to him, simply inconceivable.